I. Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam: Tus nqi tooj liab hloov pauv ntawm qib siab, Cov khoom siv sab nraud tseem nruj
Txij li thaum pib ntawm Lub Xya Hli, tus nqi tooj liab ob qho tib si hauv tebchaws thiab thoob ntiaj teb tau txuas ntxiv hloov pauv ntawm qib siab. Raws li lub Xya hli ntuj 17, lub ntsiab Shanghai tooj liab yav tom ntej cog lus CU2608 kaw ntawm 103,550 yuan / ton, nqis 0.15% los ntawm hnub Friday dhau los; LME tooj liab raug kaw ntawm $13,528/ton, nce 0.32% hli-rau- hli. Tus nqi tooj liab tau poob ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd nce xyoo no. Vim qhov nruj tooj liab concentrate mov thiab ncua sij hawm rov pib dua ntawm kev tsim khoom ntawm Grasberg, cov nqi xa khoom siv tooj liab concentrated tau txuas ntxiv poob.
Ntau lub koom haum thoob ntiaj teb tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm tus nqi tooj liab. BMI tau tsa nws qhov nruab nrab 2026 tus nqi tooj liab kwv yees rau $ 12,700 / tuj thiab kwv yees nws tuaj yeem ncav cuag $ 17,000 los ntawm 2035; Macquarie kwv yees $ 13,165 tab sis ntseeg tias tus nqi tam sim no twb dhau los lawm; Goldman Sachs khaws nws qhov kev kwv yees ntawm $ 12,650; UBS cia siab tias tus nqi yuav ncav cuag $13,000 los ntawm lub xyoo-kawg; thiab Chilean Copper Commission tau kwv yees qhov nruab nrab 2026 tus nqi ntawm $ 12,235. Goldman Sachs cia siab tias kev lag luam tooj liab sab nraum Tebchaws Meskas yuav nyob nruj rau lub sijhawm luv.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov khoom muag, raws li lub Xya hli ntuj 16, domestic electrolytic tooj liab cov khoom lag luam poob rau 123,400 tons, nqis 16,600 tons los ntawm Lub Xya hli ntuj 13. LME cov khoom lag luam tseem poob qis, thaum COMEX tooj liab inventories ntaus cov ntaub ntawv tshiab siab.
Lub koom haum International Energy Agency (IEA), nyob rau hauv nws "2026 Ntiaj Teb Tseem Ceeb Minerals Outlook," tau sau tseg tias kev lag luam tooj liab thoob ntiaj teb tau ntsib cov teeb meem loj tshaj plaws nyob rau xyoo tas los no. Ntau yam xwm txheej- suav nrog cuam tshuam cov sulfur thiab sulfuric acid cov khoom lag luam vim muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb hauv thaj chaw hauv Middle East, Tuam Tshoj txwv tsis pub xa tawm sulfuric acid, thiab ncua sijhawm rov pib tsim khoom ntawm cov mines loj tooj liab- tau nce ntau ntxiv ob qho tib si luv luv - lub sijhawm thiab nruab nrab - cov khoom txaus ntshai. Lub IEA cia siab tias lub ntiaj teb refined tooj liab xav tau nce ntau dua 25% los ntawm 2040 piv rau qib tam sim no.
II. Txoj cai muaj: Tuam Tshoj Tightens Peev Xwm Expansion Controls, Recycled Copper Industry Accelerates Consolidation
Thaum Lub Xya Hli 3, Tuam Tshoj National Development thiab Reform Commission (NDRC) tau tshaj tawm "15th Tsib- Xyoo Kev Npaj rau Kev Txhim Kho Kev Lag Luam," thov kom txhim kho qib siab - kev siv tus nqi ntawm cov tsoos "hauv nroog mines" xws li cov khoom tsis yog- ferrous hlau. Ua raws li txoj cai tswjfwm, ntau lub ntsiab lus me me hauv cov khoom siv tooj liab zoo li Yingtan hauv Jiangxi thiab Qingyuan hauv Guangdong tau tso tseg kev ua haujlwm ib zaug, thaum ua raws li cov chaw ua haujlwm tooj liab tau ua kom muaj peev xwm nthuav dav. Raws li kev siv tooj liab rods yog RMB 1,200-1,500 pheej yig dua ib tuj dua li thawj tus pas nrig tooj liab, thiab ua ke nrog cov khoom siv ntsuab ntsuab, kev txo nqi tag nrho yog qhov tseem ceeb.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, NDRC tau hais meej tias nws yuav ntxiv dag zog rau kev saib xyuas cov haujlwm tshiab ntawm tooj liab thiab alumina thaum xyoo 2026-2030 txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev nqis peev uas tsis muaj txiaj ntsig thiab kev nthuav dav tsis zoo. Tuam Tshoj Nonferrous Metals Industry Association yav dhau los tau hais tias kwv yees li 2 lab tons ntawm kev npaj tooj liab smelting peev hauv Suav teb tau raug ncua.
Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm txoj cai thiab kev txwv tsis pub siv, Hunan Yuneng tshaj tawm rau Lub Xya Hli 16, tom qab kev pom zoo ntawm pawg thawj coj saib xyuas, qhov kev txiav tawm ntawm nws 500,000 tons / xyoo tooj liab smelting thiab txhawb nqa qhov project hauv Fuquan, Guizhou.
III. Kev Hloov Kho Kev Lag Luam: Cov Thawj Coj Kev Lag Luam Pom Kev Ua Haujlwm Zoo Tshaj Plaws, Siab -Cov Khoom Siv Tooj Kawg tshwm nyob rau hauv Kev Lag Luam Exhibitions
Thaum Lub Xya Hli 8, Jiangxi Copper tau tshaj tawm nws qhov kev kwv yees ua tau zoo, cia siab tias yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo los ntawm cov tswv cuab ntawm RMB 7.55–8.5 billion rau thawj ib nrab xyoo 2026, nce 80.86%–103.61% xyoo-rau- xyoo. Thaum Lub Xya Hli 17, Jiangxi Copper tshaj tawm nws txoj kev npaj yuav tig tawm nws cov chaw muag khoom Jiangxi Copper Foil rau npe rau ntawm Pawg Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm Hong Kong Tshuag Txauv.
Tongling Nonferrous Metals cia siab tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tswv cuab ntawm RMB 2.65–3.15 billion rau thawj ib nrab xyoo 2026, nce 84.13%–118.87% xyoo-ntawm- xyoo. Northern Copper cia siab tias thawj zaug -ib nrab cov nyiaj tau los nce 170%–190% xyoo-rau- xyoo.
Ntawm qhov kev nthuav qhia pem hauv ntej, Munich Shanghai Electronica Show tau tuav txij lub Xya Hli 1 txog rau 3, qhov chaw Chinalco's Luoyang Copper Processing thiab Central China Copper showcased high-kawg tooj-raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab xws li tooj liab-nickel-silicon siab-lub zog stripconductivity siab{7}. Jintian Co., Ltd. tau hais txog nws qhov siab -cov khoom siv tooj liab zoo tshaj plaws, siab -conductivity precision tooj liab busbars, thiab lwm yam khoom lag luam. Txij thaum Lub Xya Hli 8 txog rau 10, 2026 Shanghai International Copper Industry Exhibition tau tuav, qhov twg Jinxi Chunlei tau nthuav tawm siab- cov khoom kawg suav nrog siab - zog tooj liab -nickel- tin alloys thiab tooj liab -nickel{22} cov ntaub ntawv.
Lub 4th Tuam Tshoj International Supply Chain Promotion Expo tau muaj nyob rau hauv Beijing thaum lub Rau Hli lig, qhov chaw Tuam Tshoj tooj liab tau nthuav tawm ze li ntawm 20 cov khoom lag luam suav nrog cov khoom siv high-kawg txhuas thiab siab -lub zog siab-copper alloys, thiab Tongling Nonferrous showcased yim siab -kawg tooj liab khoom.
Hais txog Boway Alloy, lub tuam txhab Nyab Laj cov ntaub ntawv tshiab tseem tab tom ua haujlwm, thiab nws tsis ntev los no tau hais rau ntawm kev sib cuam tshuam cov neeg ua lag luam tias nws tau koom tes nrog kev tshawb nrhiav cov ntawv thov hauv qab tshiab rau tooj liab -raws li alloy 3D luam ntawv.
IV. Technological Frontiers: Ntau qhov kev sib tw hauv R & D ntawm cov khoom siv tooj liab tshiab
Kunming Copper's tellurium-tooj liab hlau qhov project tau ua tiav rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, ua tiav qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam ceev rau siab -kev ua tau zoo tellurium- tooj liab alloy cov ntaub ntawv hauv tsheb tshiab, hluav taws xob precision, thiab lwm yam lag luam. Thaum ntxov Lub Xya Hli, Jintian Co., Ltd. tau txais daim ntawv tso cai patent rau "ib qho corrosion-resistant tooj liab alloy raj thiab nws txoj kev npaj." Sanhua Holdings 'patent rau tooj liab alloy thiab nws txoj kev tsim khoom tau luam tawm thaum Lub Xya Hli 10. Tsis tas li ntawd, Henan Academy of Sciences 'High-kev ua tau zoo Copper Alloy Key Technology New Materials Pilot Platform" tau suav nrog hauv lub xeev- qib kev pabcuam pej xeem.
