Yog tias cov ntawv yav dhau los tau pab peb nkag siab "dab tsi" hlau chromium yog, "yuav ua li cas" nws tsim, thiab "qhov twg" nws los ntawm, ces hnub no cov khoom yuav tsom rau cov lus nug uas siv tau ntau dua - qhov kev lag luam no muaj nqis npaum li cas tam sim no? Tus nqi txav li cas? Thiab lub neej yav tom ntej yog dab tsi?
1. Tus nqi hloov pauv: Los ntawm kev nce siab mus rau kev kho qhov tseeb
2025 yog lub xyoo zoo heev rau cov nqi hlau chromium. Cov nqi tau hovering nyob rau theem qis thaum ntxov hauv lub xyoo, tab sis nkag mus rau qhov kev nce qib pib thaum Lub Ob Hlis, nrog cov tuam txhab ua lag luam xws li Zhenhua Co., Ltd. nce nqi nce ntxiv hauv Lub Ob Hlis, Peb Hlis, thiab Plaub Hlis, rau qhov nce ntawm RMB 10,000 ib metric ton. Raws li lub Plaub Hlis 21, qhov chaw nruab nrab tus nqi ntawm cov hlau chromium tau mus txog RMB 69,000 / tuj, nce RMB 7,500 txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo.
Qhov kev tawm tsam tiag tiag tuaj txog thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj - qhov thib ob lub xeev khaws cia ntim ntau tshaj qhov kev cia siab, nce ze li plaub npaug ntawm thawj qhov kev yuav khoom ntim, ncaj qha thawb hlau chromium nqi nce RMB 10,000 / tuj. Raws li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 9, Shanghai hlau chromium tus nqi sawv ntawm RMB 75,500 / ton, thaum tus ex-tus nqi ntawm lub Hoobkas suav nrog cov se tau los ntawm RMB 82,500 / ton - nce ze li ntawm 28% hauv ob lub lis piam. Txog rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam loj 'ua tiav cov nqi tau ruaj khov ntawm ib puag ncig RMB 85,000 / tuj.
Nkag mus rau 2026, kev ua lag luam tau nkag mus rau theem ntawm kev hloov kho kom muaj nuj nqis. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 26, qhov chaw nruab nrab tus nqi nruab nrab rau 1 # chromium tau tshaj tawm ntawm RMB 76,350 / tuj, nqis RMB 1,000 / tuj los ntawm hnub dhau los. Tag nrho kev lag luam kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi tseem nyob ntawm 60-70%, nrog rau kev ua lag luam nyob rau hauv ib tug tsis muaj zog thiab volatile qauv.
2. Kev Pabcuam-Ntsemand Pattern: Cov qauv tsis sib xws hauv qab qhov sib npaug nruj
Kev lag luam loj: Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hlau chromium muaj nuj nqis kwv yees li US $ 881 lab hauv 2025 thiab tau kwv yees kom ncav cuag US $ 1.415 nphom los ntawm 2032, sawv cev rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo (CAGR) ntawm 7.1%. Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb chromium (xws li chrome ore, ferrochrome, thiab lwm yam) muaj nqis txog $ 27.86 nphom hauv 2025 thiab xav tias yuav ncav cuag US $ 41.91 billion los ntawm 2032.
Kev Pabcuam: Ntiaj teb no txhua xyoo ntawm cov hlau chromium sawv ntawm 80,000-100,000 metric tons. Tuam Tshoj yog lub ntiaj teb ua lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv cheeb tsam, suav txog 47% kev lag luam, thaum Europe tuav 38%. Ntiaj teb no siab - carbon ferrochrome ntau lawm mus txog ze li ntawm 17 lab metric tons hauv 2025. Txawm li cas los xij, South Africa tab tom ua haujlwm hloov pauv - vim yog cov nqi hluav taws xob siab (nrog rau kev pom zoo 12.74% tariff nce), ferrochrome ntau lawm yog maj poob kev sib tw, thiab ferrochrome export ntim tau poob 51% hauv 202.
Kev thov sab: Ib txwm siv stainless hlau xav tau txuas ntxiv tsis tu ncua (ntawm 3-5%), tab sis lub cav loj hlob tiag tiag tau hloov mus rau siab -kawg sectors xws li superalloys, aero- cav, thiab roj turbines. Kev thov thoob ntiaj teb superalloy tau nce los ntawm kwv yees li 20-30%. Nyob rau hauv cov chaw tawm tshiab, 1 GW-chav kawm khoom oxide roj cell (SOFC) fais fab nroj tsuag xav tau ntau tshaj 1,000 metric tons ntawm hlau chromium; Nws tau kwv yees tias SOFCs yuav ntxiv 3,800, 11,300, thiab 26,200 metric tons ntawm chromium xav tau hauv 2025, 2026, thiab 2027, raws li.
Kev soj ntsuam tag nrho: Kev lag luam chromium thoob ntiaj teb yog nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm kev sib npaug nruj. Kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb chromium sawv ntawm 11.712 lab metric tons hauv 2025, 12.931 lab hauv 2030, thiab 13.590 lab hauv 2035.
3. Yav tom ntej Outlook: Peb Txoj Kev Loj Loj Reshaping Toj roob hauv pes
Txoj Kev 1: Kev nce ntxiv hauv siab - qhov kawg thov. Tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hlau chromium tau hloov pauv los ntawm "stainless steel voj voog" mus rau "cov khoom siv raw khoom tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam tawm tshiab." Tub rog, aerospace, thiab lub zog tshiab (roj hlwb, hlau-chromium flow batteries) yuav sib koom ua ke tsav kev xav tau siab dua.
Txoj Kev 2: Intensifying supply-sab constraints. South Africa npaj yuav yuam kom 25% xa tawm tariff rau unprocessed chrome ore; Teb chaws Europe npaj yuav siv Txoj Cai Tseem Ceeb Raw Materials Act nyob rau hauv 2026, xav kom muaj tswv yim reserves mus txog 45% ntawm txhua xyoo noj; Tuam Tshoj twb tau xaiv chromium los ua ib lub teb chaws cov peev txheej ntxhia.
Trend 3: Widening supply-xav tau qhov sib txawv. Kev lag luam tsom xam cov haujlwm uas qhov khoom siv - qhov kev xav tau sib txawv yuav nyob mus txog xyoo 2028, nrog rau qhov tsis txaus ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm tshaj 30%. Cov nqi hlau chromium hauv 2026 yuav tsum nyob twj ywm hauv RMB 75,000-80,000 / tuj ntau.
4. Cov ntsiab lus
Kev lag luam hlau chromium hauv 2025 tuaj yeem suav nrog hauv ib kab lus - "epic volatility." Los ntawm thaum ntxov - xyoo poob mus rau lig - Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj nce, thiab tom qab ntawd mus rau qhov kev kho kom raug nyob rau nruab nrab -2026, tus nqi nkhaus qhia txog kev sib koom ua ke ntawm lub xeev kev yuav khoom, nce qib siab kawg, thiab cov khoom siv nruj.
Saib tom ntej, hlau chromium yog hloov los ntawm "stainless steel additive" rau hauv "cov khoom tseem ceeb rau kev tsim khoom siab heev." Leej twg tswj hwm cov peev txheej saum toj kawg nkaus thiab tsim kom muaj kev lag luam tag nrho yuav tuav lub siab ntawm qhov kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb no.
(Qhov no xaus cov hlau chromium series rau tam sim no. Los ntawm cov khoom tseem ceeb rau cov txheej txheem ntau lawm, los ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam saw mus rau kev lag luam toj roob hauv pes, peb vam tias cov khoom no tau pab koj tsim kom muaj kev nkag siab zoo ntawm cov hlau tseem ceeb no.)
